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Virginia's 2nd District: Tightest congressional race within the nation? – The Middle Sq.


(The Middle Sq.) – With Nov. 8 a mere 47 days away and Republicans vying to flip management of the U.S. Home of Representatives, Virginia’s 2nd District could also be one of many tightest races within the nation.

Rep. Elaine Luria, the district’s Democratic incumbent, is making an attempt to carry off a aggressive problem from Republican challenger, state Sen. Jen Kiggans.

FiveThirtyEight, which supplies polling and election evaluation, has the race tied – closest within the nation. The web site’s mannequin offers each candidates a 50% likelihood of successful. It’s one in every of two races that’s evenly cut up down the center.

Different fashions are additionally itemizing the 2nd District as a tossup. Sabato’s Crystal Ball on the College of Virginia’s Middle for Politics lists the race as one in every of 25 toss-ups and the Cook dinner Political Report lists it as one in every of 31 toss-ups. Politico and most different forecasters agree.

“Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is one in every of her occasion’s most endangered members,” Politico election reporter Steve Shepard wrote in his firm’s evaluation. “Her redrawn Tidewater district went for President Joe Biden by simply 3 factors in 2020. Republicans are hopeful that state Sen. Jen Kiggans may be the candidate to unseat Luria, who has defeated scandal-plagued former Rep. Scott Taylor in back-to-back elections.”

Though the district narrowly supported Biden in 2020, its voters supported Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2021.

Although she represents a swing district, Luria has largely toed the occasion line. She has voted in keeping with Biden on 99% of points and solely voted with former President Donald Trump on 11% of points, in response to FiveThirtyEight trackers. Her notable moments have been the one endangered Democrat to serve on the Jan. 6 Home investigation committee; cosponsored laws to determine a federal assault weapons ban; and voted in favor of elevating the minimal wage to $15 per hour.

One space during which Luria has damaged from her occasion is international coverage. In June, she was the lone Democrat to oppose a decision that might have repealed the authorization of the usage of pressure in Iraq. When she ran for workplace, she vowed to by no means take cash from political motion committees, however later accepted donations from protection contractors and tobacco firms.

Kiggans has served within the Virginia Senate for practically three years. She voted in favor of tax cuts and the creation of lab colleges within the current state finances and supported laws that requires Virginia colleges to report sexual battery from college students. She additionally backed a invoice that might permit mother and father to decide their kids out of sexually express course materials within the public college system and voted in opposition to a invoice that might have ended a lot of the state’s obligatory minimal legal guidelines.

Throughout her marketing campaign, Kiggans has vowed to oppose gun management and obtained an endorsement from the Nationwide Rifle Affiliation. She has stated she would struggle inflation by opposing massive spending plans and helps decreasing taxes to encourage enterprise development.

Democrats maintain slim management of the Home. Many fashions predict that Republicans ought to have the ability to flip sufficient seats to realize management of the chamber.

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